Domesday Asteroids

I’m sure you have all heard about the Asteroid that, when announced, had a very good chance of hitting the Earth? Later scientists recanted and said that further study shows that the asteroid’s chances of hitting the Earth are greatly diminished. Now I have to call into question the accuracy of those measurements and calculations. Any of you that hike and use a compass know that if you are off even an 8th of a degree over a long distance of say a mile or so you will be WAY off from your target. All the computations done on the orbits of these objects and the Earth are based on mathematics, physics and supposition. Now mathematics is very clear and concise – for the most part. But physics tend to be not quite so precise (i.e. chaos). When you have to create a theorem or something that has no basis or substantiation to try and “fill in the gaps” to make your theory viable then I have to really question its validity.

Now taking that into account there are some theories and “facts” that truly are based on supposition and best guess. How fast is the Earth really moving in its orbit? Who’s to say that at certain points it doesn’t speed up slightly or slow down? Now how fast is that asteroid actually moving? Have you ever looked at a car in the distance that is coming at you? How fast is it going really? How about an airplane flying overhead? You can make educated guesses based on some known facts but it would be a best guess without having instruments on the plane telling you.

Recently we found that the Voyager spacecraft were not traveling as far as one might think. There is an unseen force that was affecting them. We also recently found out that the solar wind has an impact on larger bodies in space.

SO… How certain can we be that that asteroid won’t impact the Earth in 2029? Going back to the earlier analogy of the compass that is over a mile. How accurate is the path known being that it is MILLIONS of miles away? Being off in a calculation or best guess by even a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent could put that asteroid on our doorstep and we wouldn’t be the wiser until it was too late. Not too long ago an asteroid passed the earth within 26 THOUSAND miles. That is not a large margin of safety.

The asteroid of 2029 can still be a factor. We know there are many, many, many smaller asteroids floating around out there and even big ones we haven’t detected yet. What happens if one of them collides with 2029? Won’t that change the orbit of the asteroid? Even a small impact can be enough to nudge the asteroid in the right direction putting it on collision course that may not be noticeable until it is too late. What about when it passes the Earth? The effect of gravity, disruption of solar winds and other things can influence the orbit of that asteroid. So it doesn’t strike the Earth in 2029… What happens a down the road? Don’t you think the orbital influence might change the orbit enough that it can be an issue later on?

Many things are best guess in this type of science. When there are potential collisions no mater how small the chance they need to be watched and reported constantly. Who knows … maybe July 4th when Deep Impact hits the comet we will be in for a bigger show than we expect.